Friday, February 10, 2017

A resurgent India surging ahead ..

Why is US upset with India's economic growth ? Will India be able to sustain its economic growth under Modi ? Is Trump as US President an indirect blessing for India ?

Donald Trump taking over as the 45 th US President is watched with great trepidation and fear by the rest of the world. An inward looking Trump, boasting of the strengths of a highly debted nation (crossing $ 19 trillion dollars in national debt), openly speaking against later immigrants and flexing muscles against China, the present top global economy, made painful reading .

The gravitating shift of global power equations from the West to the East made top news yet again. For the great Indian democracy, the main point of concern, after demonetising Indian currency notes of Rs 500 and Rs 1000 denomination on November 8, 2016 was, would the present Indian Prime Minister Modi be able to sustain the economic growth started by former Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh and take India forward or do we need Dr MMS back in charge to take India to great heights ?

When the globally acclaimed economist Dr. MMS took Indian economy from #10 global rank in 2004 to #3 global rank in 2014, the world took note and wondered to what great heights India would move. The bubbling Indian democracy with a change of government was poised to scale great heights. China at $21.5 trillion and US at $18.5 trillion were only ahead of India's $8.6 trillion GDP at PPP. Modi as PM presently had a great responsible and noble task before him. 

The Demonetization drive as mentioned above was a good move aimed to strengthen Indian economy, though in the short term the outlook may appear grim. It had great potential for the country to get rid of black money and illicit wealth, unless it causes a stagnation of the economy with people being cautious at spending. The first  results of Demonetization has not yet been officially announced except for the fact that more currency came back to the banks than what was known to have existed, a big shock and shame !

Being a #3 global economy, Indian efforts firstly should be to set right the injustice at the global level where economic growth of any country is pegged on the US dollar. It should be able to garner global opinion to change the global economic system from focusing only on US Dollar and instead on a basket of global currencies including the Chinese Yuan, Indian rupee, Japanese Yen, the Deutsche Mark and the British Pound (?). Second, let our national goal be to climb up as #2 global economy with the motto, "India, always for progress". With the excellent lead provided by Dr MMS, PM Modi and FM Jaitley as a team, are capable of helping put India on track to progress, if not achieve this goal earlier.

The Knight Frank and Citi Private Bank Global World Wealth Report 2012 - highlights India to be the largest global economy  by 2050 AD, surpassing China by 2050.(click here for the report), go to page 11, table 1.

With the world reposing faith in India's economic might, PM Modi has been very lucky, he inherits a vibrant economy. He should be able to guide an economically mighty and strong India to lead the world and should also seek advice from the former PM and world renowned Economist Dr Manmohan Singh to become an economic giant, overtaking China. 

The Indian PM, good in  his personal intentions for the country, has to be vigilant that he not be carried away by petty rabble rousing, big talking, regressive minded, communal thinking politicians, pulling the country behind and instead focus on the progress and prosperity of the masses.

The more rabble rousing Trump does (characteristic of Republican Presidents in US), the worse it is for US and the better it is for China and India, the oldest civilizations of the world !

Ge ..

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