With the right person at the helm of affairs in India and the right
time where global companies are looking to invest, India is very
fortunate with its democratic credentials and a young population to be
at the right place at the right time..
I have come out with a broad scenario comparing the three top
economies of the world. SCENARIO ANALYSIS ..
India presently has a GDP of $1.2 trillion, China $4.0 trillion and
US, $14 trillion ( WITH A $13 TRILLION NATIONAL DEBT, THE HIGHEST BY
FAR AMONG ALL COUNTRIES OF THE WORLD AND INCREASING AT THE RATE OF $ 2
BILLION EVERY DAY. living beyond its means..). Ordinarily this would
result in pauperism but if US continues to attract talent and
intellectual coolies from India, who migrate in droves, the scenario
would not be that grim.
Consider a scenario where India grows at a very modest annual rate of
15 %, China at 5 % and US contracts at a rate of 5%. ( due to the
double recession and loss of competitiveness and lack of innovative
After 20 years, the scenario will be like this ( GRIM DAY SCENARIO ..)
India would be a $19.6 trillion economy, China would be a $10.6
trillion economy and US a $5 trillion economy.
ie. India would be twice as big as China and China would be twice as big as US.
If US were to shrink at only 3 % every year, after twenty the scenario
would not be that grim, it would be more or less like India now, but
with GDP of $ 7.5 trillion.
The misery of shrinkage would be much more than the luxury of growth
as evinced by the utiles theory in decision making.
All other nations including Japan, Europe and Russia have been
excluded as they would be insignificant players in the world market
then or the undeveloped or under developed nations of the world..
This is not an utopian scenario, but the demographic and democratic
dividends of India would reap much bigger and better rewards.